# EnergyPulse Engine

> Forecasts of retail energy prices (petrol, diesel, heating oil) 1–14 days ahead, for the countries and regions we have data for (prices in each country's currency, per litre). Global commodity markets (Brent, product futures, exchange rates) react to news within minutes; retail prices follow 5–15 days later. The engine models that lag with an asymmetric pass-through ("rockets and feathers") model. Published at https://energypulse.makridis.dev.

## Pages

- [Forecast](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/) — Retail price forecast (petrol, diesel, heating oil) for the next 1–14 days, for each country and region we have data for, with the BUY_NOW / WAIT / NEUTRAL signal.
- [Active shocks](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/shocks) — Commodity market shocks currently working their way through the supply chain to the pump.
- [Accuracy](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/accuracy) — Forecast error (MAE) and directional accuracy against official retail prices, per country.
- [About](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/about) — The thesis and the econometric model: asymmetric pass-through, rockets and feathers.
- [FAQ](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/faq) — Common questions about the forecasts, the data and their limits.
- [Privacy Policy](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/privacy) — What data this site collects, how it is used, and your rights.
- [Terms of Service](https://energypulse.makridis.dev/terms) — Terms for using this site and its public API.

## API

- [API docs](https://api.energypulse.makridis.dev/api/docs) — interactive OpenAPI reference (Redoc); the raw spec is at https://api.energypulse.makridis.dev/api/openapi.yaml.
- [Countries](https://api.energypulse.makridis.dev/api/countries) — countries with forecasts, their currency, regions and fuels.
- [Forecast](https://api.energypulse.makridis.dev/api/forecast?commodity=RON95) — public, read-only REST API, no authentication required (`country` optional).
- [Active shocks](https://api.energypulse.makridis.dev/api/shocks/active)
- [Accuracy metrics](https://api.energypulse.makridis.dev/api/metrics/accuracy)

## Notes

- Forecasts are model output, not financial advice. Accuracy is published openly on the Accuracy page.
- `/admin/**` pages are excluded above (private).