Frequently asked questions
More detail in How it works.
Why do pump prices follow oil prices with a delay?
Fuel in tanks and pipelines was bought at the old price, refineries and wholesalers reprice on a schedule, and stations smooth their margins. Together this delays the move by roughly 5–15 days.
What does "Buy now" mean?
The model expects the pump price to be at least about 3 euro cents per litre higher within 3 days (the threshold is converted to each country's currency). "Wait" means at least that much lower within 5 days; everything else is "Neutral".
Why are price rises faster than falls?
Empirically, retail fuel prices respond to cost increases faster than to decreases ("rockets and feathers"). The model uses a faster adjustment speed for rises than for falls.
Does it read the news or social media?
No. It relies only on market prices (Brent, product futures, exchange rates). News is already priced into them, so we skip the noise.
Where does the retail price data come from?
From each country's official or public retail price source — for example a national fuel-price observatory or an energy agency's published averages. The same data is used to score the forecasts afterwards.
Which countries are covered?
Every country and region we can source retail prices for. The Country selector on the Forecast page lists exactly those that have forecasts today; more appear as data sources are connected. Prices are shown in each country's own currency, per litre.
How accurate is it?
The accuracy page publishes the mean absolute error at 3 and 7 days and how often the direction of the move was right, measured against the official prices.
Is it financial advice?
No. It is a model output and can be wrong, especially when taxes, price caps or supply disruptions change abruptly.